Though on-road vehicle stock in Bengaluru is set to grow by 1.5 times by 2030, CSTEP analysis finds that emissions may not rise proportionately
The on-road vehicle stock in Bengaluru is expected to grow by 1.5 times, with the total vehicular population projected to increase from 5.7 M to 8.9 M by 2030. The city’s electric vehicle (EV) fleet is projected to grow from 75,000 to 2.3 M, with the most significant increase in the number of two-wheelers, followed by three- and four-wheelers.
However, despite the growth of on-road vehicles, carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM) emissions are expected to increase by only 25%, 13%, and 8%, respectively, owing to the deployment of EVs, according to our study, ‘Bengaluru 2030: Impact of EVs on Vehicular Emissions’.
Further, to aid in the green transition of the transport sector, the study suggests that the share of renewable energy sources in the overall energy mix should be enhanced. The study notes that of Bengaluru’s 3.2 GW of rooftop solar potential, roughly 40% coverage will be sufficient to meet the entire charging demand of all EVs in 2030.
In India, the transportation sector accounts for roughly 10% (290 million tonnes) of the total CO2 emissions per year, with road transport being the leading contributor.
A previous CSTEP study (2022) concluded that vehicle electrification is an efficient means to curb vehicular emissions and significantly reduce sources of urban pollution, such as PM2.5, PM10, NOx, and black carbon.
In the current study, the on-ground vehicle stock in the last 20 years (2001–2021) in Bengaluru was obtained. In addition to relying on the transport department’s vehicle registration data to estimate the number of on-road vehicles, the study accounted for the vehicles that were retired and slated for retirement (through projections). This approach could more accurately account for the number of on-road vehicles in the city. The vehicle population was projected to the horizon year (2030) by extending the past growth trends in each vehicle class.
Electric two-wheelers (e2Ws) will experience the most significant growth (2 M vehicles in 2030), followed by electric four-wheelers (e4Ws; 140k vehicles) and electric three-wheelers (e3Ws; 130k vehicles). If this growth is sustained till the horizon year, 100% EV sales penetration can be witnessed in 2030 for all vehicle classes except for four-wheelers.
The study also found that despite this significant growth in the vehicle population, greenhouse gas emissions only increased by ~1.25 times (from 11.1 M tonnes to 13.8 M tonnes of CO2). This finding can be directly attributed to the deployment of 2.34 M EVs with zero tailpipe emissions, which is equivalent to the removal of 4.85 M conventional two-wheelers plying in Bengaluru. In addition, the projected EV fleet size will contribute to an overall reduction of NOx, PM2.5, and PM10 emissions. Further, with increased adoption of e2Ws, the tailpipe emissions for all three pollutant classes from these vehicles will remain more or less stagnant. However, the largest increase in emissions will be witnessed from four-wheelers because e4Ws showed the lowest penetration among all analysed vehicle classes.