Wild Wild West

CSTEP’s Climate Atlas for western states predicts overall warming of temperature and an increase in high-intensity rainfall events across districts

The western states of India are set for more high-intensity rainfall events, according to a new study by the Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP). Titled ‘District Level Changes in Climate: Historical Climate and Climate Change Projections for the Western States of India,’ the study indicates changes in climate patterns that are likely to occur in the western states of India — Goa, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Rajasthan — over the next three decades compared to the historical period (1990–2019). The study analysed two representative scenarios: moderate emissions and high emissions.

The number of rainy days is expected to increase in almost all districts of these states. The number of rainy days is likely to increase by 1 to 24 under the moderate-emissions scenario, with the maximum increase projected in Rajasthan. Under the high-emissions scenario, it is likely to increase by 3 to 22 days, with the maximum increase projected in Goa.

The study projects an increase in high-intensity (51–100 mm/day) and very high-intensity (>100 mm/day) rainfall events over the next three decades. Annually, the increase in high-intensity rainfall events is by one to five events under the moderate-emissions scenario, and one to eight events under the high-emissions scenario.